A Short Note on Where Have Our Reserves Gone?
After I published this piece it was brought to my attention that the IMF have revised their figures for Singapore’s general government surplus once again for the years 2003-2010. In the process they have reduced the figure for the cumulative surplus over the years 1990-2010 from $429 billion back to $271 billion which is approximately where it was in April 2012 when they revised it upwards.
However this second revision begs more questions than it answers. I have not had time to study the figures in-depth but the net lending figure (which is the general government surplus) for the years 2003-2010 looks much too low given the level of assets already accumulated. It also does not alter the conclusion of my article that the level of net assets is far too low given the operational surpluses, the claimed rates of return for both Temasek and GIC and the likely revenues from land sales. I will be writing more on this soon after I have been able to analyse the figures.